Hello and Happy President's Day weekend to all!
Although the winter weather and school closures have caused several area schools to lose this Monday as a holiday. Looking at the calendar, it is hard to believe that 2/3 of February is gone. The sunshine of Friday and today cause me to yearn for spring to be here.
2017 spring price discovery - Prices effective with Friday's close, no markets on Monday holiday. All grain classes were strong and climbing higher, then Thursday and Friday came send all grains sharply lower. We have 6 days yet to trade for the remaining discovery period; prices will not change significantly, but a lack of market strength will continue to erode away at the current averages. I anticipate the next update to be after RMA announces the final prices for below crops as well as the price for all dry pea types, which will be no later than March 3rd.
Projected $ Trending
Barley $3.41 flat -
Canola .175 flat -
Corn 3.97 flat -
Soybeans 10.22 flat -
Civil unrest - Granted, nearly all readers will not require the coverage identified in this article, I found this to be an interesting read and thought I'd share - perhaps a history lesson or reminder of sorts. The events listed all occurred during my lifetime, with half of the those listed during 1967 & 1968. Mercy, have they been expensive - both in human life and monetarily.
Farm Bill hearings - The first of many field hearings are scheduled for this week in Manhattan, KS. The link that follows is an article reporting what economists and Congressional leaders have to say about the current farm economy. Economists highlight struggling farm and House Ag Chairman View
Fertilizer 2017 - Here's an article on the outlook of P & K pricing for 2017.
Markets - Exports remain brisk for both grains and livestock. Live cattle closed above 20-day and 40-day moving averages. Dollar continues to provide head wind, yet there has been a decline in value post our recent elections in November. Export sales report out this morning shows another strong week for the majors - corn 45.4 mb, soybeans 39.6 mb, and wheat 20.5 mb. This is 2x the volume same week last year and 558,252 mt for the week is nothing to sneeze at. All were deemed "bullish" except wheat called "neutral". USDA changed wheat export expectations to account for the brisk sales, now pegged at a 32% expected demand increase. Some are suggesting the lack of fundamental support and speculative money may be the cause of the recent corn and wheat rally; if so, gains may evaporate as quickly. Speculation that position re-balancing and reinvestment by traders who are trading weather was part of the market selloff Thursday & Friday of last week.
Spring wheat - Has the recent rally run out of steam?
Trade - Rhetoric or reality? You be the judge...
Weather - Drought index is updated weekly on Tuesday's, released the following Thursday...10-day forecast suggesting the dry areas of the HRW region of CO, KS & OK remain so as dormancy begins to break...perhaps the start of an El Nino weather pattern as some are predicting.
Until next time...
"Golf is played by twenty million mature American men whose wives think they are out having fun..." ~Jim Bishop
McGregor Risk Management Services, LLC
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Office - 509.843.2599
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