Harvest Price Discovery (so far)
An update on current average harvest prices in discovery and a few other noteworthy items in today's update.
We've received untimely rainfall across the bulk of the region which will result in a delay of harvest. Along with the moisture, has been some of the frozen variety as well. During the delay, please check your fields for any possible hail damage.
If a field is damaged and the combine(s) will be cutting prior to when the loss adjuster arrives to make an assessment, the crop hail policy requires areas to be left (the size of header square 40' x 40') to make any adjustment and loss determination. The number of counts required per field is a minimum of 2, with 4 per 150 acres and 1 for each 50 acres thereafter (as below).
These charts are general guidelines for finding consistent damage percentages. If the damage found in the field varies, more counts will be required to accurately determine the percentage of hail damage.
|FIELD ACRES||MINIMUM COUNTS|
|over 150||4+1 for each 50 acres|
2019 HARVEST PRICE DISCOVERY
This past week concluded the first full week of prices and puts us right at 30% complete for the discovery period. Week over week prices saw a small gain in barley, canola, and spring wheat, whereas fall wheat lost some value.
BAYER & GLYPHOSATE
On Friday, a report from Bloomberg suggested that Bayer AG is proposing a settlement of the more than 18K lawsuits that have been filed to date. There are stories likening glyphosate lawsuits to the eventual settlement of asbestos. Bayer stocks soared on the news...
Meanwhile, EPA says they will no longer approve product labels claiming glyphosphate causes cancer.
BORIS & IRAN
Strange bedfellows perhaps, but Boris & Co never miss a beat to be a thorn...btw, Iran seized another tanker this past week.
For a country that thinks in term of centuries, what is the end game for China?
coupled with ongoing Hong Kong protests...
Prices have moved lower for five fertilizers.
FSA & MFP
Apparently some county FSA offices are unable to process MFP signups that began late last month, while other offices are having no issues processing the necessary paperwork.
Insult to injury - First and foremost, there is no disputing the fire caused loss of life and corresponding loss of property. That said, I find it hard to believe that this grower 'knowingly' continued to operate said combine knowing that sparks were being emitted. Judging by the age and model of the machine in question, if the economics for growing wheat were better, perhaps a machine with the technology suggested could be afforded.
Monday will be the much anticipated release of the results from growers resurveyed of their planted acres for 2019. With this are several noteworthy columnists suggesting USDA exit the reports arena. Noting what value do their reports provide and suggesting why can't the markets figure out on their own? With prior reports as a guide, I anticipate there will be several head-scratching numbers provided.
RMA has paid out in excess of $1B of prevent plant claims to date. This number is expected to finish near $3.5B for 2019 prevent plant claims. Crop industry numbers for prevent plant acres are much higher than what USDA has indicated thus far, maybe these numbers true up tomorrow.
What is important of tomorrow's numbers is that of harvested acres. What's a very likely scenario for this year's corn harvest is wet, low-test weight corn, due to the delay in maturation of the 2019 crop. These numbers will be immediately tested by upcoming yield tours. DTN/Progressive Farmer Digital Yield Tour begins tomorrow as well. The ProFarmer crop tour begins the week following, August 19th - 22nd.
Russian forecast of lowered wheat harvest, now with rain occurring at harvest potentially impacting quality. For the week, corn and Chicago wheat were up $.10 and beans were up $.25, while KC and MSP wheats were lower.
OREGON ANIMAL KILLING & MUTILATION
This is an odd and expensive story for the ranch involved.
The dry areas of the US continue to expand and grow according the the latest Palmer Drought Monitor. The short term forecast does not provide any relief to the corn in the Midwest, perhaps the PNW, but not the ideal harvest weather for our region.