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A Change In The Weather
We've sure felt a change in weather locally and the forecast is for much cooler temps for this week. Although we discussed a neutral weather pattern in the Pacific at our grower meetings, NOAA has just released a watch for possible La Nina forming by this December as the deep water temperatures have cooled as much as 12 degrees below normal in the Pacific.
As hard as it is to admit this, it sure looks to be another long season for the beloved Huskers after their home loss over the weekend, spotting the opposition 14 points on 2 pick 6 plays is not good football and they easily could be 0-3 as 1-2. Coach Riley is a very likeable chap and just received a contract extension, which has been the kiss of death for each of the last 2 coaches...I hope Riley fares better than the prior 2 coaches. The Cougs continue their winning ways and should improve to 4-0 after this coming weekend.
2018 Projected harvest prices - RMA announced next year's price late on Friday, I dare say the earliest announcement ever. Sales closing is less than 2 weeks away. The volatility factor for fall wheat is at prior year levels at .18; whereas the spring wheat factor is higher than it has been recently at .30.
90% APH guarantee - Time is running out to attain a higher coverage level or additional coverage value for 2018 winter wheat crop. Any and all changes for fall seeded crops must be completed by 9/30/17, including securing this private product coverage. For those interested, insuring for a higher wheat value of $6.50 fall wheat or $6.90 spring wheat must also be done by upcoming sales closing date. Let us know.
Crop insurance and GAO - A timely read from National Crop Insurance Society (NCIS) about a prior report promoting the benefits of crop insurance...
Fire and suppression costs - Agriculture Secretary Perdue was recently before Congress asking for reconsideration of how the US Forest Service is funded so the agency is not constantly borrowing from other programs to combat wildfires. Year to date costs incurred battling the numerous wildfires are over $2 billion dollars. The annual budget of fire suppression has grown from 15% to more that 50% in recent years. Read more...
Markets - Corn and bean markets were hit by hurricane WASDE this past Tuesday, according to Todd Hultman from DTN. USDA raised the estimated bushels for each in their latest estimate of this year's production. Yet, the markets rebounded nicely to close the week - do the markets/traders know something that USDA does not?!? Harvest has begun and the initial yields are not near nor reflecting the USDA yield projections...
Wheat on the other hand fared much better on Tuesday's report - reducing world ending stocks as well as production from Australia and Europe. Carryout numbers remain gigantic, but USDA did increase SWW exports by 20 million bushels - the sarcastic side of me says this is the same 20 million bushels that were 'found' in PNW inventory about this time last year. Minneapolis has given back virtually all the weather related gain of earlier this summer, although USDA did not address or change the 4% abandonment acreage of the upper plains in Tuesday's report - things that make you go hmmm...
Weather - We've sure felt a change in weather locally and the forecast is for much cooler temps for this week. Although we discussed a neutral weather pattern in the Pacific at our grower meetings, NOAA has just released a watch for possible La Nina forming by this December as the deep water temperatures have cooled as much as 12 degrees below normal in the Pacific. This was the influence of our weather this past fall and winter for the PNW, and contributed to the reduced crop production in South America. If a La Nina weather pattern does develop, history has shown that to adversely impact crop production across our Midwest Corn Belt, which is currently classified between abnormally dry and moderate drought...stay tuned
Until next time...
“We can’t all be heroes because someone has to sit on the curb and clap as they go by.” ~Will Rogers
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Posted in Risk Management; Posted September 19, 2017 by Curtis Evanenko
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