Football is back...and so is Congress

Happy Labor Day everyone,
Football is back and it's hard to believe it's already September. Local schools will face challenges this weekend - the Cougs entertain BSU, the Bison travel to Cheney and Nike U hosts the Huskers... each promise to be entertaining match ups and help set the tone for their respective season. I was again reminded that education is expensive this past week - inflation has permeated everything! In our beloved Washington state, a 5mph over speeding ticket is now $105...$20 sure doesn't buy what it used too! The officer said it could have been worse, I was not in a position to argue his point and I'm grateful for the grace he extended me.....lesson learned.

2017 Harvest prices - RMA announced the 2017 harvest prices on Friday, they're captured below. Depending on production, barley and fall wheat could pay a revenue loss this year; canola and spring wheat would pay any production shortfall at the higher of harvest price. A quick calculation:

Revenue to count = harvested bushels x harvest price

Compare your revenue guaranteed at sales closing to revenue to count from harvest.

2018 Projected prices - There are but 9 days remaining of the discovery period for 2018 fall crops with a 9/30 sales closing, here's their current averages follow. RMA has indicated any adjustment to the basis differential for fall wheat will occur this week.

2019 Farm Bill - Congress returns to DC this week and are expected to address several priorities prior to fiscal year end of September 30, including government funding and the debt ceiling. The House is expected to consider the ag appropriations bill as part of a package of remaining appropriation bills. Congressman Blumenauer of OR has filed an amendment that proposes a $125k aggregate on commodity, conservation and crop insurance premium subsidy benefits. Needless to say, this amendment will adversely impact grower affordability of crop insurance.

If this amendment is brought up for debate, there will need to be a call to action on our part. Stay tuned...

Boris likes cheese - Since the import ban of cheese from the EU, not surprisingly costs have risen...dairy cows are being directly imported into Russia to help bridge the gap. Yep, read about it here...

Disaster declaration - Idaho counties of Clearwater, Idaho and Lewis have been declared primary natural disaster areas, meaning farmers and ranchers qualify for natural disaster assistance. Additional contiguous counties include Adams, Latah, Lemhi, Nez Perce, Shoshone and Valley in Idaho, plus Mineral, Missoula and Ravalli counties of Montana, and Wallowa county of Oregon. Contact your local FSA office for additional details.

Economy - This little snipit was part of a linkedin short story...
Banks raise red flags on US economy - Data from the banking industry is showing that the slow US economic expansion may be about to stall. In its quarterly report on the sector, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. found that total loans and leases by banks and other insured institutions rose by just 3.7% from a year earlier at the end of June. That is the third consecutive quarterly deceleration and is down from a 6.7% pace of growth a year ago.

Friendly skies - Our finest and their efforts to keep our troops safe...

Harvey - Can you imagine receiving 4' of rain? More than 48" fell southeast of downtown Houston setting a record for the most rain ever recorded on the contiguous US from a tropical storm. The devastation is heartbreaking and I hope and pray for their safety and recovery.

Livestock - Livestock prices have steadily weakened over the past 6 weeks to a point where feedlots are now losing money.

Whereas placements continue to be brisk and ahead of last year's numbers in August. Read more...

Markets - Dollar continues to soften, Australia's adverse weather remains, dry and hot and now at least 2 freeze events; yet the price for a bushel of wheat can't catch a break...

• Canadian terminals have their tightest stocks in 4 years.
• The crop conditions in Alberta show further deterioration as harvest commences.
• StatsCan released their crop estimates for this year's crop with information gathered thru August 1st...

Weather - I caught an interview with a meteorologist suggesting there's a couple chances looming for an early, damaging frost across parts of the corn belt this month; specifically cited later this coming week, and again near the 20th of September, due to cold air masses pooling in the Hudson Bay. The 2017 corn and soybean crop need as much as 30 days additional days to reach maturity in some areas of the country. The wild card are hurricanes - they typically allow/cause a cold air mass to fill in behind their wake...here's the current projected lows for Wednesday morning.

Until next time, an educational and child based theme to close...

• “Education is the most powerful weapon which you can use to change the world.” ~Nelson Mandela
• “Children have more need of models than of critics." ~Joseph Joubert

Curtis Evanenko
McGregor Risk Management Services, LLC
Cell - 509.540.2632
Office - 509.843.2599
Fax - 509.843.2583

Posted in Risk Management; Posted September 06, 2017 by Curtis Evanenko