Blog » Make No Beans About It...Winter is Coming
Make No Beans About It...Winter is Coming
Anything loose has been fully removed or reattached after Friday's gale force winds. Inevitably, it seems I'm never prepared for high winds and spend the following day gathering the scattered items. Perhaps a teachable moment or a lesson could be learned. The cover photo on this page is from family trying to complete harvest last week - soybeans in ND after more than 8" of rain in September and over 2' of snow two weeks ago.
2018 Farm Bill
A friendly reminder of FSA hosted meetings this week:
10/28 - Touchet
10/29 - Walla Walla
10/30 - Waitsburg
10/31 - Prescott
11/4 - Dayton
10/31 - Canola contract termination date for non-payment of premium
11/14 - Production reporting deadline for wheat
11/30 - Wheat contract termination date for non-payment of premium
The top ten states for claims, all but one are east of the Mississippi...link
Rural banker's confidence dips...link
If not aware of or familiar, WeWork is a venture capitalist that was valued in excess of $45 billion dollars that in several weeks is nearing junk bond status...link
Is the latest GDP in China the reason pushing for an end to the US trade tensions? link
Thankfully, we have low interest rates to help with the poor margins producers are dealing with, which can only last so long as debt repayment is stretched over more years...link1 and link 2
Farm profitability correlates to fertilizer application according to a recent study...link
The friendly trend continues...link
I don't recall posting this article previously, given the interest, this remains timely...we should know by the end of next month of any additional crop insurance expansion from RMA...link
Nearly six months of protests are beginning to take its toll on the local economy...link
The first phase of the trade agreement with China is expected to be signed next month in Chile as stated in previous update. Reports are of $20 billion in Chinese purchases the first year of the agreement, which would equate to level similar to 2017 prior to the current trade tift. Rumors are that the amount/value could ramp up substantially ($40B - $50B) if all US tariffs were dropped...hmm, have cake and eat it too? link
Have you seen the price of bacon in China? I know, that's not the normal market you pick up a pound when on the shopping list. The US inventory is ready with the largest inventory in 48 years! The impact of ASF remains staggering to me - estimated to be more than 50% of the Chinese herd, which is more than 25% of world inventories...link
Global protein impact for years to come...link
Ethanol margins are improving this fall. Poorer quality corn, low test weights due to frost prior to maturity, will test the industry...link
A precipitous drop in exports indicate the magnitude of the drought gripping Australia and the impact on availability of feed and for domestic and export usage. The chart is specific to oat hay being sold to Japan, a hopeful windfall for PNW hay growers and price of timothy hay.
Australian wheat production is expected to be off 30% from their five year average, canola down more than 15% from year prior.
US corn to wheat price ratio historically has averaged 1.4 over the past 50 years. Current ratio of 1.1 has occurred only 9% of the time.
A bill has been introduced in the Senate to help with well-being in the heartland...link
Tri-State Grain Conference
The annual conference is just a couple of weeks away. There's a strong lineup of speakers and I'm particularly interested in hearing Peter Zeihan, a geopolitical strategist, speak again at Tri-State. I find his books compelling reading and personally look forward to hearing him speak again. His second book spoke to this regarding the new world order...link
Cool and wet where it's not needed. The flooding and flood stage conditions of 2019 will carry right on into 2020...link1 and link2
Worker Protection Standards (WPS)
Plans are being made for providing the annual, EPA mandated training in early January, meetings hosted in Colfax and Walla Walla at present. If you'd kindly indicate your interest, this will help us plan accordingly. Specifics sometime late November or early December.
Weekly Crop Comments
25th Oct 2019 Trempealeau County, Wisconsin
About 30% done with beans. Yields off about 5 bushels from last year. Corn is wet and now looks like yields will be nowhere near what was expected. Light test weight and too much water caused N shortage at the end.
24th Oct 2019 Clark County, South Dakota
Has not been a good year. Still trying to cut silage in places, making a mess of the fields. Harvest is very slow less than 10% of the beans cut in our area, yields down 10 bushel from last year, wet fields causing a lot of beans to be left standing. Corn harvest bushels are down 20 to 30 bushels and won't dry down most running in mid 20 moisture and up to 30 plus. Really wet, pray for no snow. Be safe out there.
24th Oct 2019 Lee County, Illinois
Field conditions have been a challenge but finally found some April planted corn at 20%. Still a little below average. Not sure when the beans will get done. 300 acres to go and no sunshine.... Long way to go for most here in Lee County. Bean yields good but off 10 from last year at least.
24th Oct 2019 Hopkins County, Kentucky
We had 200bu down to 80 bu. A little too much rain on us.
23rd Oct 2019 Langlade County, Wisconsin
125 acres of soybeans off. Very wet and our window is closing for bean harvest with 370 acres to go. Yields are below average. Corn is still around 30%. We haven’t moved the combine for 4 days. Good luck all.
23rd Oct 2019 Cayuga County, New York
Beans just won’t dry down when you only get two days of good weather and then a couple days of bad weather. Having to dry all of them running between 15 and 17% and hand shelled some corn can’t find anything below 30% yet. Didn’t start planting until May 23 and finished up the first week of June, but there’s a lot of later planted crops in this area into the middle of June. Can’t wait for 2019 to be over.
22nd Oct 2019 Mcleod County, Minnesota
Finished combining soybeans Sunday night. 39 bushel average yield 12.5 to 13.5 % moisture. Have not started corn is 29% moisture. Rained 1.7 inches yesterday so don't think we will be back in the field any time soon as the ground was completely saturated before this. We have had 12.7 inches of rain now since Labor Day and lakes in all of the fields.
22nd Oct 2019 Buffalo County, Nebraska
High winds, 45-50 mph gusts, all day Monday took the top end off this year's yield. Several fields are flat-very difficult to pick up now that we don't cultivate or ridge any more. Yields have already been less than last year's. The crop year started out difficult, and it certainly looks like it's going to end that way too. At least the cows grazing stalk fields will be well fed. While on the subject of cattle, despite tremendous death loss and excessive feed costs due to lousy weather earlier this year, calf prices are around $100 per head less this fall. There is a lot of money made on food, it just isn't being made by those who produce it.
21st Oct 2019 Wallace County, Kansas
Yields are easily off 20-30 on corn. Still a lot of acres that wasn’t ready for the first hard freeze of 16. Some areas not being harvested at all due to several hails this year. Now we have 2 days of 50 mph plus winds, can’t catch any kind of break. On this weather. I’m betting if you have any cash left you’ll be able to pick up some good used equipment later this winter.
21st Oct 2019 Wood County, Wisconsin
Beans down 10-15 bushel below our farm average, most need to be dried 16-17% moisture. Very small amount harvested. Rains every 2nd or 3rd day. Lots of silage being made. Hardly any corn for grain started in the area it will be another long fall.
21st Oct 2019 Stearns County, Minnesota
Central MN is a complete disaster. Another 2-3" rain and only 30% crop harvested
21st Oct 2019 Huron County, Ohio
Big harvest weekend. Everyone running to beat the rain. Crop was disappointing. Soybeans yielded 48 to 52 in Huron County, Ohio.
19th Oct 2019 Howard County, Nebraska
Most beans in our area are combined. Average was consistently 10-20 percent below last year. Just getting a good start on corn. First 2 pivot quarters were 10 percent below last year. Starting to get some dry corn (16-17) on last week of April planted 113 day corn. Not a single person at the elevator bragging about yields.
18th Oct 2019 Henry County, Illinois
90 acres soybeans across scale 60bu/acres planted June 7th last year 63 bu/acre
18th Oct 2019 Floyd County, Iowa
Got corn here averaging at this point (just got a good start) 145 bu @ 26.3 %. Monitor showing 70 to 210 & 23.6% to 29%. Was 103 day corn planted May 12 that froze hard last weekend. I think it will improve some, but not up to farm average of 216.
18th Oct 2019 Door County, Wisconsin
Beans coming off when weather permits. Corn running 26%-just dented. Silage coming off quickly where field conditions permit. No killing frost yet. More rain forecast. What a strange year!
17th Oct 2019 Pepin County, Wisconsin
Western Wisconsin: very little corn and beans combined. The corn that has been combined is 27% moisture and 50-pound test weight.
16th Oct 2019 Dekalb County, Indiana
Crops got frosted the other night, some beans not ready for a frost, and a lot of corn wasn't ready.
16th Oct 2019 Monroe County, Missouri
Northeast MO. 55 bushel beans, 1 44 bu corn. Some are saying better. That's mine.
15th Oct 2019 Kandiyohi County, Minnesota
Can't get anything done. Had more rain again last night. Corn moisture is way too wet to dry economically. It may be a good idea to leave in field and pick some next spring. Going to start leaving some rented ground. It just isn't worth it farming at a loss anymore. Weather is becoming worse than anything I have ever seen before. Good luck farmers
Until next time...stay warm and Happy Halloween!
Posted in Risk Management; Posted October 30, 2019 by Curtis Evanenko
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