March 15th: not just a deadline for Julius Caesar

Good evening,

2018 Projected Prices - RMA announced the projected revenue prices for dpeas on Friday; no word on the actively traded spring crops (barley, canola, corn, soybeans) so I will provide their current running average for your reference. Announced prices will not deviate significantly from these, if at all, as well as the wheat prices set last September. Prices listed are for conventional grown crops. Additionally, volatility value is a measurement of the variance of the price during the discovery period and is a direct correlation to the per acre premium cost for the particular crop.

2019 Farm Bill - There are some whom believe that as the months roll on, finishing a farm bill this year dwindles with each passing day. The biggest hurdle in the 2014 Farm Bill was the nutrition and food stamp program, this remains 80% of the bill and the looming hurdle for a new farm bill.

Ag Nominees - After nearly a year awaiting confirmation, Gregg Doud has been confirmed as the Chief Agricultural Negotiator. Also after a lengthy delay, Bill Northey was confirmed as the USDA Under Secretary for Farm Production and Conservation. This office has jurisdiction over the RMA, FSA and NRCS.

Fertilizer - Phosphate and potash prices trended upward for most of 2017, expectations are that this trend will continue. Read it here...

Homeowner insurance rates - The NW and the NE states have the most affordable homeowner insurance rates nationwide - yes, earthquakes, hurricanes and tornadoes do matter. Read this to see why we are in a good spot

Markets - USDA will roll out another supply and demand report on Thursday - time will tell if known production issues around the world be addressed this month. Dry southern plains and Argentine have the markets attention. Argentina reportedly is the driest in decades; KS and OK winter wheat have more acres deemed poor to very poor (50%) than good.

Chicago wheat was up more than $.50 for the week and KC wheat was up $.60 before Friday's retraction. Estimates are that 45,000 short contracts were covered this week by hedge fund traders.

Soybean growers are fearful of a Chinese retaliation to the proposed tariffs the Trump Administration wants to impose; yet steel workers in Pennsylvania are happy hearing the news...

Pig census and photos - an quick read on AI utilization in Chinese meat production. AI = artificial intelligence in this scenario

Sales Closing Deadline - The spring sales closing deadline is a mere 10 days away; any and all changes to spring crop policies must be completed by March 15th. Please let us know how we can assist you.

Weather - The Palmer Drought Index map could be an infomercial for this winter's jet stream...it has clearly shown the moisture and storm track thus far this winter.

Crop Comments:

• Nuckolls County, NE: Not any measurable moisture since first part of last Oct. is very concerning. Machine prices have been holding up. Rent backed off just a tick. Inputs are steady or down even. Irrigated land should be profitable with the uptick in Grain prices and I really expect that to gradually get better and possibly quite a bit better later in the year. Dryland might need to go to sorghum. YUCK
• Chouteau County, MT: The wheat in our area is 50 to 100 percent under snow cover at this time, so not too sure of it's condition.
• Madison County, OH: Winter came to an abrupt ending as of February 10. We have been way above normal in temperature and precipitation. We have had over 4 inches of rain in the last 5 days alone. A lot of washed out fields. I don’t care if you’re no-till, conventional till or cover crop, nothing holds up to this abuse. Since last spring we have had 3 rain events of 5+ inches, and 7 events of 2.5 or more. I’m 46 years old and have been farming my whole life and every year scares me more and more. The weather is so much more extreme and violent than it was just 5 years ago. I really fear for my sons and future generations if we continue on this pattern.

Until next time...

"Be prepared and be honest.”…John Wooden

Curtis Evanenko
McGregor Risk Management Services, LLC
Cell - 509.540.2632
Office - 509.843.2599
Fax - 509.843.2583

Posted in Risk Management; Posted March 05, 2018 by Curtis Evanenko