The Purifying Scent of a Fresh Rain

The Purifying Scent of a Fresh Rain

Hello all,
There are certain scents that really strike a chord with me and I could bask in their aromatic effervesce for hours - blooming and blossoms of sweet clover, citrus (orange), lilac and jasmine to name a few. 

Last Friday the passing shower provided the combination of rain on warm asphalt, plus the purifying scent of a fresh rain...heavenly. Perhaps the glimpse of something other than smoke made it that much more refreshing...

Industry updates for your review: 

8/31/18 - Canola sales closing is less than 2 weeks away. Remember, all changes must be completed by the end of the month. This includes coverage level, coverage plan and entity. The 2019 RMA projected harvest price for canola is $.176, with a .10 volatility (stable market).

2018 harvest prices - This past week completed the second full week of discovery and now 56% of the period is in. Values continue to build from the onset on 8/1. Ten trading sessions remain for the discovery period of crops in our region.


Fall Canola

Fall Wheat

Spring Wheat





2019 projected harvest price - Last Wednesday marked the beginning of the new crop pricing for RMA. The markets showed strength out of the gate, each day was a nickel higher than the day ending stocks are decreasing and the market is responding!

Fall Wheat

Spring Wheat



China - Is China about to be the first to 'blink' in the trade standoff with the US? There are several reports that the insatiable Chinese appetite for soybeans cannot be met through other markets and sources. They tried, but apparently US soybeans are required to meet their consumption needs. The #2 trade diplomat is expected in the US later this week. Here's to a productive discussion and an agreement!

Disaster declaration - USDA has designated eight counties in Oregon as primary natural disaster areas, making producers in Baker, Crook, Deschutes, Grant, Haney, Lake, Malheur and Wheeler counties eligible FSA emergency loans. Producers in bordering, contiguous counties may also be eligible. Please contact your local FSA office for more details.

Farm Bill - The four leaders, majority and minority, from the House and Senate have all been quoted as saying they will do everything they can to meet the 9/30 deadline during their August recess. There have been discussions among the conferees while away to help kick start the process of negotiating the differences between the two bills. Optimism is present and a welcomed sign of cooperation and collaboration that I hope continues beyond this legislation.

Markets - As witnessed the past 6 weeks, any trade news, good or bad, send markets in the corresponding direction. The pundits are stating that a US and Mexico trade agreement is near; US hog producers need a win, their prices are in $40 range. Canadian trade officials are due to meet with US officials this coming week. Belief is that a trilateral agreement is near, Canada won't hold out if an agreement with Mexico is reached.

A couple of weeks ago there was a report that the Ukrainian government was going to halt exports; then that was deemed 'fake news', followed by a news release that in fact there may be 2mmt reduction in exports as indicated last week. Could the same be happening with Boris and Natasha? Wheat markets rallied on the news that Russia may have oversold their wheat inventory and will need to throttle back future sales to meet their domestic needs on Friday; today, the opposite reaction with the markets. Smoke and fire go hand in hand.

Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour begins Monday and runs through Thursday with the tour's estimated yield released on Friday. Expect market reaction to discovery of yields different than USDA's earlier prediction of 178+ bushel corn and 51+ bushel beans...the maturity of this year's crops are not record-setting, but close. 2018 crop is the 3rd fastest crop to be this mature, this early. The only the drought years of 1987 and 2012 had an earlier maturing crop in recent history. For corn, it is twice what the 5 year average of maturity is for this time. Correspondingly, yield is expected to be affected because of the fast maturity pace.

Prop65 - The exhaustive 22 page list of items California deems 'carcinogenic', a list which includes aloe vera, alcoholic beverages, aspirin, leather dust, wood dust, oil orange (think Gojo) and, Chinese style salted fish...last I knew, the Chinese lived as long as any other population. Are the Chinese not consuming salted fish, merely sending to California?

WOTUS - A judge's ruling this past week adds more murkiness to the already muddy waters (yep, pun intended and not the legendary blues guitarist). 26 states, including Oregon and Washington are again under the 2015 ruling; whereas Idaho is one of the 24 states that the ruling has been suspended.

Until next time...

“That action is best which procures the greatest happiness for the greatest numbers.” ~Francis Hutchinson

Curtis Evanenko
McGregor Risk Management Services, LLC

Twitter Logo Blue3@mcgregor_risk

Cell - 509.540.2632
Office - 509.843.2599


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