Blog » The Yo-Yo Season-is it winter or spring?
The Yo-Yo Season-is it winter or spring?
I couldn't stand it anymore, I had to plow our garden spot today, while there, I fired up the lawnmower too! An excuse to suck up the pine cones and pine needles vs raking them, plus I needed to service it for the year. I thought today's wind was rather cold, a quick check of the calendar and realize that today was 'normal' February weather. A quick update on a few items from the week behind us and what's coming...
Good evening all,
Bizarro World - Texas crude oil being sold to the Middle East, a back haul I'm sure...read about it here
Congressional Budget - That's an oxymoron...like Phyllis Dillar and humor, but I digress. Congress passed a spending bill Friday morning funding cottonseed ARC/PLC participation at FSA, and boosting the dairy Margin Protection Program. No change in Section 199A provision; however, race horses will remain a 3yr depreciated property and race cars a 7yr depreciated property.
Emergency Conservation Program - ECP signup is now through March 10, 2018, at the local FSA office for those counties where fires destroyed fences or negatively impacts to their grazing operations may be eligible for this program. Contact your local, county office.
Projected harvest prices - Here's the average pricing from this past week's market, 13 sessions remain for this discovery period.
Barley - $3.25, steady for the week
Canola - $.184, a bit softer than last week
Markets - USDA released their monthly report on Thursday, here's a quick synopsis: corn exports are up and bean exports are down, a bit less wheat in the world, still higher than last year. No adjustments made to Argentina or Australian wheat production by USDA, Black Sea region production slight uptick. Indonesia has become the largest buyer of wheat in the world, surpassing Egypt.
For the first time in several years, global demand for corn will be greater than carry stocks; conversely, soybean demand globally will be less than world carry stocks. Spec funds were shown reducing their net short position to around 85K contracts in Chicago, down significantly from the record or near record position of a couple of weeks prior. KC funds flipped from short position to net long position. The market is questioning the validity of some of the data; will someone say 50% of the world wheat stocks held in China?
Mr. Newsom had a great take on the latest report from USDA - likened to a nuisance weed and yard bombs.
Ethanol prices were off 1.25 cents to 1.50 cents per gallon, due to higher supply build up. Milo was down significantly, reflecting news from the Chinese Ministry of Commerce to conduct anti-dumping investigation on the US - tit for tat response to US tariffs on solar panels and washing machines. Thus far this marketing year, China has purchased 2.28 million metric tons compared to 1.94 million metric tons for this same time period last marketing year (2016-17).
US dollar rebounded and showed some strength last week...read 'dollar posts best week in 15 months'
The US isn't the only country with an ag labor shortage...check this out
Weather - When was the last time all but a handful of states were in some sort of drought condition? I count 2 near the great lakes and couple three on the East Coast...
Perhaps a change in our weather and a cool down? Rain later this week, then beginning this weekend below normal temps...
Marshall County, IL: This winter reminds me of 2012, no subsoil moisture. We did well last year because of good subsoil moisture. Argentina doesn’t have moisture below to bail them out. Their crop is going to be bad unless they start getting more normal rainfall. There’s still time for us to recharge but the situation could turn interesting.
Spink County, SD: Lots of farms around here are renting out there corn stalks for grazing beef cattle this winter. Getting a little extra income plus help with breaking down residue a win win for both parties.
Queen Anne County, MD: If you want me to increase food production and feed the world, you [the market] have to pay me a price so I can survive the inflation and huge input costs increases.
Until next time...
“Being the best that you can be is possible only if your desire to be a champion is greater than your fear of failure.”…Sammy Lee
McGregor Risk Management Services, LLC
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Posted in Risk Management; Posted February 15, 2018 by Curtis Evanenko
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