Try Not to Drive Thru PHX in July

Try Not to Drive Thru PHX in July

I hadn't planned to provide another update on the heels of last week's, but there's been some significant things happen and wanted to keep you, after nearly 20 hours and 1200+ miles in a moving van, I've had the opportunity to ponder much. Phoenix is a grand place to visit, however, timing is everything!

Canada - Our neighbors have gone to pot as well and now a perceived crisis looms...
Speaking of pot, is it any surprise that there's an increase in auto accidents? Read more about the possible link here...

Crop Insurance - Recent conversation between Ag Secretary Purdue and lawmakers captured in this link...

Livestock - This past week cash prices have come down relative to futures, the previously wide premiums have closed. Herd reductions in the Dakotas have not slowed...

A federal judge in Montana ruling on Montana checkoff dollars, ranchers must first approve before funds can be spent...

Markets - USDA released updated stocks and planted acres on Friday. Some things never change...carryover stocks of wheat were up nearly 50 billion bushels from last month's estimates; corn stocks were also up and according to the report, the bulk of the corn bushels are still owned and remain on the farm vs in commercial hands. Planted acres for corn were higher than the March estimates by nearly 1 million acres, 400k of the acre increase is in ND. I stand by my comments last week on the expected US corn yield: it will not attain a 170 bu average for 2017. Conversely, planted spring wheat acres were 400k less than expected. Stats Canada has reduced the spring wheat acres by 1 million acres; all told, that's 1.5 million less spring wheat acres for 2017 crop year in a year when high quality protein wheat will be in stronger demand.

For the week, all markets had positive gains - Minneapolis wheat was up $1.05, Chicago gained $0.51 for the week and KC was up $0.47. 2017 harvest continues to provide low protein red wheat, providing the ever increased demand for high protein red wheat. Additionally, the quality of the wheat crop has been downgraded again in the Black Sea and EU regions. Will the continued buying of wheat by China finally gain attention from the traders?

Euro has gained in value vs the dollar; dollar continues to have pressure and is aiding the price of US commodities abroad.

Financial, US & Global - Billionaire investor shares his thoughts here on the artificial levitation of financial system.

Oil - Resistance seems to be found at current prices, perhaps suggesting a slowdown of shale expansion...

MYA wheat -NASS has announced the marketing year average price of wheat for 2016/17, $3.89. This price will generate a PLC wheat payment of $1.61 per program bushel on base acres times 85%. This payment will be in October of 2018; 2015/16 payment ($4.89) is made this coming October.

Weather - This will be the story of the next couple of weeks across the corn belt and spring wheat region of our great land, as they both enter critical grain filling stage.

Near term forecast for Bismarck, where they're as much as 5 inches short on moisture this spring:

ND weather july 4

us temp forecast

drought monitor june 27 

Hoping everyone had a safe 4th of July and a bountiful harvest to follow!

“You can get everything in life you want, if you will just help enough other people get what they want.” ~Zig Ziglar

Curtis Evanenko
McGregor Risk Management Services, LLC
Cell - 509.540.2632
Office - 509.843.2599
Fax - 509.843.2583


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